Your light bulb not quite there

Nigel will split votes from UKIP (but Tommy is running as Independent). Ukip are getting the BLAME for being friendly with Tommy, but as things stand... Tommy can not actually join the UKIP party, let alone stand in an election... because he was formerly a member of EDL (and BNP briefly). The Ukip rules are that people cant join it they are former members of "far right" groups. It is possible to get past that... if the entire membership of the party vote on it.. as a one off for Tommy... but they have not done that.
NIGEL is stirring the plot and calling Tommy a far right thug.. and the media are too... hence just being friends with Tommy is turning people off UKIP... It's all a media smear job of course.... and Farage is using that to promote himself to the detriment of UKIP.
It works out well that Tommy is an Independant where he is standing. 8 seats in that region, and a lot of support.
It looks like UKIP will do poorly across the country.... better Farage gets some seats than all the magor parties... as long as Tommy gets a seat... the rest can go to Brexit (and a few to ukip hopefully)
As far as crash notes go.... maybe Wikepedia?
This MEP election should NOT be happening at all. UK is still SUPPOSED to be leaving EU... in October. (that could be delayed again).... so these MEPs will not be there long, if at all. A waste of 150 million pounds to hold these elections. This election's only value is to send a message. Conservatives will certainly have a poor showing... maybe Labour too. Votes for Tommy, BREXIT(farage), and UKIP will all be an indication of how many people want to LEAVE the EU.