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UK General Election - Build-up, polls etc
http://www.randomtopics.org/viewtopic.php?f=155&t=2107		 Page 1 of 10
Author:  Rumpole [ Sat Sep 07, 2019 4:19 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: RANDOM UK POLITICAL STUFF
Another one bites the dust....

Exclusive: Amber Rudd resigns from cabinet and quits Tories

Top remainer denounces PM’s ‘purge’ of 21 Tory rebels as an “assault on decency and democracy”, and says leaving with a deal is no longer the government’s main objective

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/excl ... -06dqxcjct




Boris "majority" now -45
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_M ... uspensions


Image
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/stat ... 0082162689
Author:  Rumpole [ Sat Sep 07, 2019 10:04 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: RANDOM UK POLITICAL STUFF
If we can trust Polls (big if)....

Even If Boris gets an election 15th October... Conservatives (Tory + Brexit) 44% lose to Labour+LibDim+Green 51% :(
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https://twitter.com/britainelects/statu ... 3546256387


And if the Chlorinated Chicken Alliance (Labour+LibDims+Green) 52% to Con 43% get their way and delay Election until after Brexit is DELAYED... then the Communist Government even more likely to seizes power. :doh
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https://twitter.com/britainelects/statu ... 2060154881


Other polls show small lead to likely Conservative alliance,... but still a close thing, and I do think it will be detrimental to the Conservative (Brexit) vote if there is another FAILURE to deliver and a Brexit delay.

For example YouGov poll.... (slight lead to Conservative alliance)
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https://twitter.com/britainelects/statu ... 9517048834



The people get the Government that they deserve.

If this plays out (either option) then UK is lost
Author:  Rumpole [ Sun Sep 08, 2019 11:13 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: RANDOM UK POLITICAL STUFF
Britain Elects... Poll Average

7th September 2019
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http://britainelects.com/polling/westminster/
Author:  Rumpole [ Sun Sep 15, 2019 6:03 am ]
Post subject:  Re: RANDOM UK POLITICAL STUFF
Tories extend poll lead to 12% despite week of political chaos
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ical-chaos



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https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/sta ... 2137585670
Author:  Rumpole [ Tue Sep 24, 2019 6:53 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: RANDOM UK POLITICAL STUFF
Tories lead by 15%

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https://twitter.com/britainelects/statu ... 4318469120


Labour seem to be doing their best to LOSE even more votes at their Conference :roll



HERE is a more sophisticated prediction of SEATS based on vote share ...

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https://twitter.com/subman0965/status/1 ... 1333439489

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Electoral Calculus....
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

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Much fantasizing about Farage as PM, but even if Brexit Party does "well" in a General election they will (at best) get only a few seats.(Latest polls suggest Brexit 12%, but ZERO seats). Is FARAGE (and other current MEPs) planning to stand in a General election? What (if any) is a SAFE ELECTORATE SEAT for the Brexit party? Farage could stand and fail to win his seat.
Author:  Rumpole [ Sat Sep 28, 2019 3:13 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: RANDOM UK POLITICAL STUFF
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https://twitter.com/britainelects/statu ... 0598713345



Based on poll numbers.....

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https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html


Polls Average .... Britain Elects Tracking graph
http://britainelects.com/polling/westminster/

Election Maps UK - MONTHLY TRACKER (Average of polls)
https://electionmaps.uk/polling

POLITICO - UK National parliament voting intention
https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of- ... d-kingdom/

Other polls links
https://www.markpack.org.uk/155623/voti ... scorecard/
Author:  Rumpole [ Wed Oct 02, 2019 10:25 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: RANDOM UK POLITICAL STUFF
Latest Yougov poll...

Still good for Tories and DimLibs push Labour into 3rd place :)

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https://twitter.com/britainelects/statu ... 1006428161

Putting these numbers into Electoral Calculus....

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https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk

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Polls Average .... Britain Elects Tracking graph
http://britainelects.com/polling/westminster/

Election Maps UK - MONTHLY TRACKER (Average of polls)
https://electionmaps.uk/polling

POLITICO - UK National parliament voting intention
https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of- ... d-kingdom/

Other polls links
https://www.markpack.org.uk/155623/voti ... scorecard/
Author:  Rumpole [ Thu Oct 03, 2019 2:52 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: RANDOM UK POLITICAL STUFF
BritainElects poll tracker, as of 03 Oct

3rd October 2019
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http://britainelects.com/polling/westminster/


BritainElects - Twitter
https://twitter.com/britainelects




Electoral Calculus... based on the above.....

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https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Author:  Rumpole [ Sat Oct 05, 2019 7:33 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: RANDOM UK POLITICAL STUFF
New Opinium poll....Tories back to 15 lead
(Opinium has become my fave)

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -of-labour

.. and this polling seems to be on behalf of the Observer (Guardian) they must be HATING IT :lol

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https://twitter.com/britainelects/statu ... 7364417536


slotting those numbers into Seat Calculator....

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https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

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Polls Average .... Britain Elects Tracking graph
http://britainelects.com/polling/westminster/

Election Maps UK - MONTHLY TRACKER (Average of polls)
https://electionmaps.uk/polling

POLITICO - UK National parliament voting intention
https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of- ... d-kingdom/

Other polls links
https://www.markpack.org.uk/155623/voti ... scorecard/
Author:  Rumpole [ Sat Oct 05, 2019 8:48 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: UK General Election - Build-up, polls etc
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https://twitter.com/sgrmuk/status/1180577151537430529
Author:  Rumpole [ Mon Oct 07, 2019 8:34 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: UK General Election - Build-up, polls etc
Image
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... l_election



Seat Calculus Prediction

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https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Author:  Rumpole [ Wed Oct 16, 2019 1:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: UK General Election - Build-up, polls etc
Image
https://twitter.com/britainelects/statu ... 0978049025
Author:  Rumpole [ Sun Oct 20, 2019 6:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: UK General Election - Build-up, polls etc
Even Electoral Calculus site show predicted 58 seat Cons majority if election held now..
(And that site seems to have downplayed Conservative poll numbers in the past)

Image
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html



The most recent poll publicised...

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https://twitter.com/britainelects/statu ... 1396916224


THOSE numbers indicate an even larger Conservative seat majority...

Image


And.... it seems to me that BXP might gain a few seats?
I think the polls "flatter" the DimLibs... who are even more crazy these days... I can not imagine them winning more than a handful of seats (maybe 12)... with diehard old Liberals.
Author:  Rumpole [ Tue Oct 22, 2019 1:36 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: UK General Election - Build-up, polls etc
Image
https://twitter.com/britainelects/statu ... 1103785984



Image
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Author:  Rumpole [ Thu Oct 24, 2019 1:40 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: UK General Election - Build-up, polls etc
The Leader of the House has confirmed a motion for an early general election will take place on Monday.
Author:  Rumpole [ Thu Oct 24, 2019 2:15 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: UK General Election - Build-up, polls etc
Westminster voting intention...

if "the UK has left the EU with a deal similar to the one negotiated by Theresa May":

CON: 32%
LAB: 27%
BREX: 15%
LDEM: 17%
GRN: 4%

----------------------
if "the deadline for the UK to leave the EU has been extended beyond the 31st of October 2019":

LAB: 27%
CON: 26%
BREX: 20%
LDEM: 18%
GRN: 4%

via @ComRes, 16 - 17 Oct
Author:  Rumpole [ Sat Oct 26, 2019 1:57 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: UK General Election - Build-up, polls etc
Image
https://twitter.com/britainelects/statu ... 0135824384

Image
https://twitter.com/britainelects/statu ... 6209436673



Image
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk
Author:  Rumpole [ Tue Oct 29, 2019 12:51 am ]
Post subject:  Re: UK General Election - Build-up, polls etc
Another Poll result... missed, or not shown yet by britainelects ?

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https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/stat ... 4132110337



Conservative lead of "only" 128 seats :cool
Author:  Rumpole [ Tue Oct 29, 2019 4:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: UK General Election - Build-up, polls etc
Election will be 12th December
Author:  Rumpole [ Tue Oct 29, 2019 7:19 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: UK General Election - Build-up, polls etc
list of the 20 MPs (Turkeys) who voted against the General Election

Adrian Bailey West Bromwich West, Labour
Margaret Beckett Derby South, Labour
Ann Clwyd Cynon Valley, Labour
Ann Coffey Stockport, The Independent Group for Change
Jonathan Edwards Carmarthen East and Dinefwr, Plaid Cymru
Paul Farrell Newcastle-under-Lyme, Labour
Mike Gapes Ilford South, The Independent Group for Change
Lady Hermon North Down, Independent
Peter Kyle Hove, Labour
David Lammy Tottenham, Labour
Caroline Lucas Brighton, Pavilion, Green Party
Ian C. Lucas Wrexham, Labour
Angus Brendan MacNeil Na h-Eileanan an Iar, Scottish National Party
Albert Owen Ynys Môn, Labour
Liz Saville Roberts Dwyfor Meirionnydd, Plaid Cymru
Barry Sheerman Huddersfield, Labour
Owen Smith Pontypridd, Labour
Anna Soubry Broxtowe, The Independent Group for Change
Hywel Williams Arfon, Plaid Cymru
Daniel Zeichner Cambridge, Labour



DO NOT VOTE FOR THESE TURKEYS!

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More than 100 MPs defy Jeremy Corbyn’s call to back December 12 election vote

Last night more than 100 of his MPs – almost a half of them – defied their leader and did not vote for an election on December 12.

Some 11 Labour MPs, including Margaret Beckett, Ann Clwyd, David Lammy, Barry Sheerman and Owen Smith, actually voted against the election.

Another 104 Labour MPs abstained in the vote or did not record one for another reason. It meant only 127 Labour MPs voted with Mr Corbyn in favour of an election.

Earlier, senior members of his frontbench team urged Mr Corbyn not to back the poll, fearing dozens of their colleagues could be ousted.

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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... -vote.html
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