Electoral Calculus Updated Today - as election is voted in Commons


https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html


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Britain Elects - Twitter
https://twitter.com/britainelects

Polls Average .... Britain Elects Tracking graph
http://britainelects.com/polling/westminster/

Election Maps UK - MONTHLY TRACKER (Average of polls)
https://electionmaps.uk/polling

POLITICO - UK National parliament voting intention
https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of- ... d-kingdom/

WIKIPEDIA -Polling for the 2019 UK general election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... l_election

Other polls links
https://www.markpack.org.uk/155623/voti ... scorecard/

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Do not go gentle into that good night.
___________ Rage, rage against the dying of the light

Thurrock, Clacton... two possible BXP seats?


Brexit Party only has chance of winning two seats at general election, says expert
October 29, 2019
By Sam Bright

Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party has a chance of winning just two seats at the next general election, according to a leading political scientist.

Yesterday evening, it was announced that Margaret Hodge had won her reselection as Labour’s candidate for Barking (bear with me, this is relevant).

After her victory, Hodge suggested to local Labour members that Farage is considering standing in Thurrock, Essex, at the next general election.

Thurrock is heavily pro-Brexit, and UKIP – Farage’s former party – came close to winning the seat in 2015, ending up just 1,000 votes behind the Conservatives.

According to Goodwin, Clacton (also in Essex) is the only other seat that Farage stands a chance of winning.

As in the case of Thurrock, Clacton had a strong UKIP presence while Farage was leader. Incumbent Conservative MP Douglas Carswell defected to Farage’s party in 2014 and held a by-election as a UKIP candidate. He won a comfortable majority, before defending the seat at the 2015 general election.

That said, Clacton has now flipped decisively back to the Tories, with MP Giles Watling holding a 16,000 vote majority over Labour.

These seats are potentially winnable for Farage, but neither are easy. We wouldn’t be surprised if the Brexit Party leader adds to his dismal/hilarious (delete to preference) record at general elections, and loses his eighth consecutive contest.


...more at link
https://scramnews.com/brexit-party-chan ... -election/

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___________ Rage, rage against the dying of the light

Thurrock (UK Parliament constituency)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thurrock_ ... nstituency)

Clacton (UK Parliament constituency)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clacton_( ... nstituency)

_________________
Do not go gentle into that good night.
___________ Rage, rage against the dying of the light

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Do not go gentle into that good night.
___________ Rage, rage against the dying of the light

I do think that a Labour government in UK would be a disaster, especially bad with Corbyn perhaps, but VERY BAD whoever is leader.
As far as Brexit goes I think Boris Deal is WORSE than remaining. At least while UK remains in EU there are moves to leave. Once Boris deal is accepted... nobody will be striving for a proper Brexit at all.

Really, the best thing about having an election is that it clearly upsets remoaners

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Do not go gentle into that good night.
___________ Rage, rage against the dying of the light

Anna Soubry Standing for Reelection...Broxtowe

She has changed parties several times and betrayed the people who voted her in.. and even voted against having an election

Broxtowe voted 55% to leave... Soubry is a rabid remainer


https://twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/ ... 2900191233




https://twitter.com/ArthurFleckEsq/stat ... 2184059905

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Do not go gentle into that good night.
___________ Rage, rage against the dying of the light

BREX-SPLITS Election: Nigel Farage told to target 20 heavy Leave seats to hold balance of power in case of hung parliament
Alex Matthews
30 Oct 2019, 15:54Updated: 30 Oct 2019, 16:32

NIGEL Farage has been told to ditch his plans to target 600 constituencies and focus on 20 heavy leave seats in the Brexit Party's election battle.

John Longworth, one of the party’s senior MEPs, told Mr Farage he should be “sensible” and ensure pro-Leave MPs return to Westminster.

...more at link
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/10 ... xit-seats/

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Brexit party divided over election tactics

Senior figures split on whether to stand in all seats or leave path clear for Tories in some areas

Kate Proctor and Rowena Mason
Wed 30 Oct 2019 20.19 GMT

Senior figures in the Brexit party are divided over whether they should contest every seat in the general election – or give committed Tory Brexit supporters a clear run.

...more at link
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... on-tactics

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Do not go gentle into that good night.
___________ Rage, rage against the dying of the light

Stop the Conservative vs Brexit Party 'madness': Tory Brexiteers urge Nigel Farage to agree an election pact to avoid a split in the Leave vote that could unleash anarchy at the polls... and may even gift seats to Labour and Lib Dems

• Brexiteer Tory MPs believe Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage must strike an electoral pact before December 12
  
• They fear if two parties stand candidates against each other in marginal seats pro-Remain parties could win
  
• Losing those marginal seats to the Lib Dems or Labour could cost Mr Johnson his hopes of winning a majority
  
• Mr Farage has offered Mr Johnson a pact - but only if the PM ditches his deal and campaigns for 'clean break'
  
• But Mr Johnson is due to fight the election campaign on a pledge to deliver the agreement he struck with EU

By Jack Maidment, Deputy Political Editor For Mailonline and James Tapsfield, Political Editor For Mailonline
Published: 23:41 AEDT, 30 October 2019 | Updated: 06:10 AEDT, 31 October 2019

Tory Brexiteers have urged Nigel Farage to drop his opposition to Boris Johnson's deal and agree an informal election pact as they warned it would be 'madness' for the Brexit Party to fight against Leave-backing Conservatives.

Mr Farage and Mr Johnson are under increasing pressure to form an alliance ahead of the December 12 snap poll to prevent their two parties from splitting the Leave vote in key constituencies.

Mr Farage has repeatedly offered a non-aggression pact to Mr Johnson if the Prime Minister agreed to ditch his divorce accord and campaign for a No Deal 'clean break' split from the EU instead.

But with Mr Johnson due to fight the pre-Christmas election on a pledge to implement the deal he has struck with the EU the two parties are on now on course for a showdown at the ballot box.





...more at link
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... hnson.html

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Do not go gentle into that good night.
___________ Rage, rage against the dying of the light

Latest Poll out... expect some "fuckery" as poll companies release "push polls"


https://twitter.com/britainelects/statu ... 5373748224




https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

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Do not go gentle into that good night.
___________ Rage, rage against the dying of the light

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Do not go gentle into that good night.
___________ Rage, rage against the dying of the light

No 10 defends Brexit deal after Trump criticism

In response, a Downing Street spokesperson said Mr Johnson's Brexit deal with the EU "ensures that we take back control of our laws, trade, borders and money".

https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50258139

Dopey damned spokesman at No 10 is ... LYING...If the BORIS BINO goes through.. UK will at best TALK about doing trade outside EU.. after "transition Period.. maybe... in 3 years... with all sorts restrictions on UK.!!

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Antoinette Sandbach, one of the rebel Conservative MPs ejected from the party for defying the government over no-deal Brexit, has joined the Liberal Democrats in a boost to Jo Swinson’s party at the start of the general election campaign.
Eddisbury Constituence
Leave 52.17%
CONSERVATIVE 57%

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Do not go gentle into that good night.
___________ Rage, rage against the dying of the light

Farage said he would announce the Brexit Party's election strategy at an event to launch its general election campaign on Friday.


This Reuters TV link says "Live in 4 hours"
Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage launches election campaign
https://www.reuters.tv/l/PZz0/2019/10/3 ... n-campaign



BREXIT PARTY CAMPAIGN LAUNCH WITH NIGEL FARAGE
Streamed live 6 hours ago
Nigel Farage





Politics is a con (mostly).
I understand that Boris had to pretend to have a new deal...on the way to getting brexit ... but I fear he conned himself and actually believes now it is a good idea. The problem is NOT finding a "good deal". The whole concept of a "deal" (treaty) was wrong from the outset. EVERY person I know (all leavers) want NO PART OF ANY DEAL (TREATY)

Farage not saying yet which Constituency he (and others) are standing in

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Mark Francois(and Tory Spartans) - reject Farage...

Nigel Farage 'cocked up' electoral pact offer 'by calling us liars'

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/gener ... ars-824947

NOT impressed with the so called "Spartans". I have woken up and reverted to not trusting the Tories. Just listened to Mark Francois and have gone right off him, in a big way! He (and the Spartans) are conflating merely giving up EU membership (status) with actually LEAVING the EU... the entanglement politically and legally!!! THAT has been the BIG CON of the Tories all along.

_________________
Do not go gentle into that good night.
___________ Rage, rage against the dying of the light

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Do not go gentle into that good night.
___________ Rage, rage against the dying of the light

I just saw a Sky News item which included some Tory Bint (Conservative candidate)....

Parroting the "Lets get Brexit done" meme

She "cant understand why Brexit Party would split the vote if they want Brexit".
She (and others) are simply refusing to grasp that Boris Deal (any deal) is NOT BREXIT.

This Tory tart is standing in a Labbour seat "Bishop Auckland"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bishop_Au ... nstituency)




EU Referendum: 61% LEAVE vote


I see it was a seat where Labour won on 2017... but only by 500 votes... so... worth a crack for Conservatives... but... BREXIT already have a named candidate... who will take some of the "Leave" voters... so Boris better be begging Farage to back off?




BORIS BINO IS NOT BREXIT
BXP will NOT "split leave vote"... at worse they will "split" the votes for two variations on REMAIN.

_________________
Do not go gentle into that good night.
___________ Rage, rage against the dying of the light

List of MPs elected in the 2017 United Kingdom general election


Defections and suspensions
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_M ... uspensions


After returning the whip to 10 Traitor Tory MPs............

Boris majority shows as -24

Of course the election will change that

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Do not go gentle into that good night.
___________ Rage, rage against the dying of the light

I have watched a lot of comments by politicians and pundits.
First point to note is the Media pundits/ reporters are being DELIBERATELY THICK in refusing to consider, let alone see, that Boris's deal is NOT BREXIT. As things stand, the BXP can not split the LEAVE vote, because a vote for Tory is a vote to see Boris deal implemented. It seems to me that it is NOT just Boris being stubborn, even the so-called "Spartans" are backing this deal. Seems they were traitors all along. You can not possible change from demanding "No Deal" to accepting the Theresa-Boris surrender treaty. SHAME ON THE TORY SPARTANS!!

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Do not go gentle into that good night.
___________ Rage, rage against the dying of the light

My advice on voting in the Election..


Never trust a POLITICIAN
(Even the "Spartans" have ripped off the mask and revealed their true colours)
By supporting BORIS BINO. They are exposed as just self-serving, ass-hole politicians, intentionally conning voters, like the rest in Westminster

Default is VOTE BXP
Only vote Tory (hold your nose) if there is no chance of a BXP win in your electorate

IF your Tory politician supports BORIS BINO.. educate him at the very least.... vote BXP.
Voting in BINO supporters is worse than a Corbyn Government.
Better to go full "Clown World" (Corbyn) than get tied in to BORIS BINO for 3 years (for ever)


Advice could change if Boris drops the deal.... but that seems unlikely?

_________________
Do not go gentle into that good night.
___________ Rage, rage against the dying of the light

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Do not go gentle into that good night.
___________ Rage, rage against the dying of the light

https://twitter.com/britainelects/statu ... 3905698816


On average of polls, electoral calculus Current Prediction: Conservative majority 76.
On the Opinium Poll numbers.....


https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

_________________
Do not go gentle into that good night.
___________ Rage, rage against the dying of the light

Boris Johnson takes no-deal off the table: PM's manifesto will abandon the threat of crashing out of EU - and promise tax cuts - in bid to capture the centre ground after ruling out a pact with Nigel Farage's Brexit Party

• Johnson's new manifesto will focus on achieving Brexit 'immediately' with his 'fantastic' deal
  
• According to the outgoing Culture Secretary, Nicky Morgan, a no-deal Brexit is now 'effectively off the table'
  
• Prime Minister promised tax cuts and to lift threshold at which people start paying National Insurance
  
• Johnson earlier rejected the offer of a pact with Farage and urged all Leave voters to back the Tories
  
• Decision to reject alliance offer puts the Tories and Brexit Party on course for a showdown at the ballot box

By Isabella Nikolic and Jack Maidment, Deputy Political Editor For Mailonline
Published: 12:20 AEDT, 2 November 2019 | Updated: 14:17 AEDT, 2 November 2019



If the Brexit Party and Conservatives do not do a deal, Farage could take votes from the Tories in crucial constituencies. That could take seats from the
Conservatives' total and make the Brexit Party coalition power brokers - or even enable Jeremy Corbyn to form a coalition


...more at link
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... round.html

Fuck the Tories... in regards Brexit Betrayal for sure, but also more generally they are promising "free stuff".. and money wasted on the "Climate Crisis" hoax/hysteria.
IF we are not going to have Brexit.. it would be no worse to also have Corbyn in charge. At least it would leave HIM to cope with the ongoing dissatisfaction over no Brexit.... laugh a minute in Corbyn Clown World.


Oh dear... how sad... never mind!
Tactical voting schemes in elections often do not work.. sometimes they even "backfire". Boris is CLEARLY not planning do the Brexit that many want... so he should LOSE those votes. Talking to people, and reading comments, it seems to me to be a large number of voters.. buy maybe Boris has poll data that shows he does not NEED those voters, so screw them? Let the campaigns begin.... VOTE BREXIT

_________________
Do not go gentle into that good night.
___________ Rage, rage against the dying of the light