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| POLLS AND PREDICTIONS - Mid Terms 2018 http://www.randomtopics.org/viewtopic.php?f=152&t=1982 |
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| Author: | Rumpole [ Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:58 am ] |
| Post subject: | POLLS AND PREDICTIONS - Mid Terms 2018 |
MID TERMS - United States elections, 2018 From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_St ... ions,_2018 Quote: The 2018 United States elections will mostly be held on Tuesday, November 6, 2018. These midterm elections will take place in the middle of Republican President Donald Trump's term. All 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate will be contested. 39 state and territorial governorships and numerous other state and local elections will also be contested.
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| Author: | Rumpole [ Tue May 22, 2018 11:44 pm ] |
| Post subject: | POLLS AND PREDICTIONS - Mid Terms 2018 |
Reuters Poll - Generic Congress The Reuters "Generic Poll" in regards Congress has FLIPPED to where Republicans are now 1% ahead   Easier to see at a glance on weekly graph... I might post a screen shot regularly?  http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/T ... apsed/true "BLUE WAVE".... my ass!! 
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| Author: | Rumpole [ Wed May 23, 2018 12:13 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: ELECTION STUFF 2018 - Special/ Primary/ General |
Looking for generic POLL that covers Senate 35 of the 100 senate seats up for grabs. Best I have found is Larry Sabbato's "Crystal Ball" (and he was crap in the Presidential election)  https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-el ... te-ratings |
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| Author: | Rumpole [ Wed May 23, 2018 12:30 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: ELECTION STUFF 2018 - Special/ Primary/ General |
Old news... but I like it..... Democrats are heading toward some big losses in this fall's midterm Senate races, polls say Ashley Turner. 8 March 2018
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/08/democra ... polls.html Axios 9 March https://www.axios.com/axios-surveymonke ... 065a3.html |
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| Author: | Rumpole [ Tue Jul 24, 2018 5:22 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: ELECTION STUFF 2018 - Special/ Primary/ General |
Blue wave? .... NAH!  http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/T ... apsed/true RCP Poll Reference https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... html#polls |
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| Author: | Rumpole [ Fri Jul 27, 2018 4:56 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: ELECTION STUFF 2018 - Special/ Primary/ General |
Generic Congressional Party preference polls I keep an eye on Reuters poll…. not that it is better or worse than the others, I watch it just because I have easy access to daily/weekly update (trends) http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/T ... apsed/true As of today: July 26th, 2018 (5-day rolling) 1,200 Responses Democratic candidate 40.6% Republican candidate 37.2% Don’t know / Refused 16.3% So it shows D +3.4% only  And 16% unknown Hardly a “Blue Wave”  FWIW as Reference - RCP average polls https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... html#polls |
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| Author: | Rumpole [ Mon Jul 30, 2018 12:11 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: ELECTION STUFF 2018 - Special/ Primary/ General |
Battle for the House 2018 https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... e_map.html   https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elect ... gress.html |
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| Author: | Rumpole [ Wed Aug 08, 2018 2:50 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: ELECTION STUFF 2018 - Special/ Primary/ General |
IBD/TIPP Poll: Americans Give Trump An 'A' For Economy Where's The Wave? IBD/TIPP Poll - Tie 45% for the GOP 45% for the Democrats. https://www.investors.com/politics/edit ... -optimism/ RCP Poll average currently D +5.7 remember a week ago they hailed Quinnipiac D +12 https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... html#polls ETA Looking for data on the "weighting" each poll gives based on "Turnout Model" In the presidential polls they typically ADDED to Dem score.. assuming a turnout akin to Obama/Romney race... which was nuts given the unusual hysteria for Obama that boosted Dem turnout. I am guessing these "blue wave" polls include points added to Dem scores (for no valid reason) I found this site (Nate Silver and his add points to D model) https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/co ... lot-polls/ This data confirms my thought that poll results are "adusted" to add to DEM score...  And this site... The Economist Model Election forecasting - Introducing our prediction model for America’s mid-term elections https://www.economist.com/graphic-detai ... -elections Midterm Wave Watcher https://morningconsult.com/2018-midterm ... e-watcher/ JULY 2018 
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| Author: | Rumpole [ Sat Aug 11, 2018 6:50 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: ELECTION STUFF 2018 - Special/ Primary/ General |
The silly Qinnipiac D+12 outlier poll has worked it's way out of the poll averages... Seems the Dem Blue wave is crashing  https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6185.html |
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| Author: | Rumpole [ Thu Aug 16, 2018 12:20 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: ELECTION STUFF 2018 - Special/ Primary/ General |
A note on polls.. If they have any "worth" at all, it is as an estimate of what real voting numbers are (will be) in an actual election canvasing all people who cast a vote. In the case of the Generic Congressional vote poll, the claim is that "if the vote were held today" which party would you vote for. Supposedly trying to measure a percentage that is what the nation wide vote will actually be. The fact that different pollsters get completely different results at around the same date is PROOF that some (or all) of them get it WRONG. For instance, at the moment the RCP average includes one poll claiming D+11 and another Poll showing a TIE!! One (or both) is WRONG... so wrong as to be EXCLUDED. It make little sense to average such divergent results at all. The average is MEANINGLESS ETA All of these polls are trying (claiming) to measure/predict the exact same thing.. a set of real and precise numbers, down to the single vote. The total % Vote on Election day for each of the parties. How good these polls are will be KNOWN after election results are finalized. However the Nationwide total votes for each party is only one factor that will determine the seats gained/held by each party. That depends on "local factors" for each district (of course) as well as how the nationwide votes are distributed around various locations. For instance... we already know that there is a concentration of DIM votes in the loony coastal districts... that is "overkill" in those areas, but does not effect most of the rest of the country. |
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| Author: | Rumpole [ Fri Aug 17, 2018 7:06 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: ELECTION STUFF 2018 - Special/ Primary/ General |
A note about polls... that only just occurred to me "Hillary won the Popular Vote" That is a fact we should EMBRACE, not shy away from. The Generic Congressional polls are (at best) an indicator of NATIONAL preferences, and so akin the "The popular vote" in a Presidential election. Hillary's much referenced LEAD in the Popular vote did not count for a hill of beans in the final tally of Electoral College allocations. In these Congressional elections a nationwide party preference for Democrat is no doubt another manifestation of an abundance of Dem voters in selective locations (coastal elites) which are in effect "over kill" in a few States that the Dems have sewn up. Congressional seats are more akin to electoral College allocations. 2016 Presidential election: Clinton (D) 65,853,514 votes 48.2% Trump (R) 62,984,828 votes 46.1% So taking the actual 2016 Election results as a "Generic Poll" the result shows D +2.1 And yet the Electoral vote was: Clinton (D) 232 43.1% Trump (R) 306 56.9% That is R +13.8 I realize that Electoral College is not same as Congressional seat distribution.. just an indicator, but the current advantage shown for Dems in Congressional Generic polls is unlikely to translate directly to seats gained in the House. In fact.. what appears to be a BLUE WAVE In Congressional polls, might well translate into a RED WAVE on election day. It seems to me that the DIMS will need a LARGE lead in the popular vote (generic polls) if they are to make any gains across individual States (blue wave). My GUESS..... they need about D +10
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| Author: | Rumpole [ Sat Aug 18, 2018 11:08 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: ELECTION STUFF 2018 - Special/ Primary/ General |
CBS Pollster Doesn’t See A Blue Wave By Ashe Schow, August 18, 2018 The head pollster for CBS News, Anthony Salvanto, doesn’t think we’ll see a Blue Wave this November – and certainly not one close to the Red Wave of 2010. Salvanto learned from the failure of polls to predict the 2016 election. He saw that the two polls that ended up being right – the LA Times/USC and IBD/TIPP – were tracking polls, so he designed one himself to use in 2018. Tracking polls differ from regular “horse race” polls in that they poll the same sample of people over and over to see if and how their views have changed over the campaign. Salvano’s team is polling 5,700 voters in the 50 or 60 districts that could flip the House of Representatives and Senate into Democrat hands. So far, he doesn’t see much flipping. “Salvanto’s polling currently indicates that few House seats will change hands in November — and that the GOP could very well hold its majority in the House,” the New York Post said in an article interviewing Salvanto. “Right now I think this election looks like a toss-up,” Salvanto told the Post. “We see a Democrat pickup in the House of Representatives in the 20-odd seat range, but Republicans could certainly hold on to the House.” Republicans currently hold a 43-seat majority. ...more at link https://www.dailywire.com/news/34695/cb ... ashe-schow Source NY Post https://nypost.com/2018/08/18/cbs-news- ... -unlikely/ The CBS Battleground Tracker  2018 House Race Ratings Aug 17, 2018 https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/h ... ce-ratings |
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| Author: | Rumpole [ Wed Aug 22, 2018 9:10 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: ELECTION STUFF 2018 - Special/ Primary/ General |
Rasmussen - A SECOND poll has come out showing a TIE... (No Blue Wave) Generic Congressional Ballot Is Dead Even Wednesday, August 22, 2018 For the first time in months, Democrats and Republicans are tied on the Rasmussen Reports Generic Congressional Ballot. ...more at link http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... nal_ballot ----------------------------------------------------------- However... the RCP hoax is still alive. The previous Tie Poll (IBD/TIPP) has dropped off the average list,and that Poll company not included in averages at all at the moment. BUT the average remains high due to silly polls like CNN with results like D+11 and.... Fox news are at it too with a D+11  Also I note that most polls use "Registered voters" (RV). Some use "likely voters" (LV) FWIW - RCP Average D+7.3 https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6185.html BTW The "bad average" at the moment includes Reuters/Ipsos as D+9 But I track that poll daily and it has improved from that to be D+2.7 Reuters/Ipsos http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/T ... apsed/true |
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| Author: | Rumpole [ Sat Aug 25, 2018 7:51 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: POLLS AND PREDICTIONS - Mid Terms 2018 |
Blue Wave report..... A third tie....Looks like "The Blue Wave" is cancelled? Reuters/Ipsos  http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/T ... apsed/true BUT WAIT.... ..... seems Reuters "found" some data after 8 days and RE-WROTE The Week Tie to be a Week D +11.1  I think the two DIFFERENT Graphs covering the SAME time period confirm.... Reuters is FAKE POLLS! I have "had words" with "Thomson Reuters U.S. Political Polling Editor" His excuses did not impress me! RCP average D+6.6 (STILL distorted by silly results CNN, Fox both D+11) https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6185.html |
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| Author: | Rumpole [ Sun Aug 26, 2018 4:45 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: POLLS AND PREDICTIONS - Mid Terms 2018 |
Fake News >>>>>> Fake Polls (obviously) (UPDATED: 8/26/2018) Fake News polls NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl .......... Democrats +8 FOX News.......................... Democrats +11 CNN................................. Democrats +11 Quinnipiac is a bit suspect too... Democrats +9 Fake news Average = D +9.8 - Fake Blue Wave OTHER Polls Economist/YouGov ................. Democrats +6 Reuters/Ipsos........................ Democrats +2.7 Monmouth............................ Democrats +5 Rasmussen Reports ................ Tie Pew Research........................ Democrats +7 IBD/TIPP............................. Tie Other Polls Average = D +3.5 - Real Blue Dribble RCP Congress Polls https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... html#polls |
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| Author: | Rumpole [ Wed Aug 29, 2018 8:35 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: POLLS AND PREDICTIONS - Mid Terms 2018 |
ANOTHER POLL......ANOTHER TIE M&A POLL: National Monthly – August http://mclaughlinonline.com/2018/08/29/ ... ly-august/  Meanwhile... back at the RCP hoax... Average = D +8 https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... html#polls They just added in a D +13 And it's from Reuters... proven erratic (often fake) poll |
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| Author: | Molly [ Fri Aug 31, 2018 11:23 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: POLLS AND PREDICTIONS - Mid Terms 2018 |
I find your poll information most interesting, Rumpole. The added comments are a bonus.  Thanks for the visuals. |
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| Author: | Rumpole [ Fri Aug 31, 2018 7:18 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: POLLS AND PREDICTIONS - Mid Terms 2018 |
Oh NOES!! My fave poll IBD/TIPP showed a TIE last time... today shows D +11  Was: D45% Vs R45% Now: D50% Vs R39% And.... Trump approval down  Trump's Approval Number Nose-Dives, Dems' Blue Wave Might Be Building: IBD/TIPP Poll https://www.investors.com/politics/trum ... tipp-poll/ I am NOT ready to concede a "Blue Wave" yet... 2 months out from the election, but it is time for Trump supporters to get REAL!! Unless people get out and VOTE in November... all this talk of Trump sorting stuff out after the election might come to nothing.. if Nancy Pelosi is speaker all these Congressional probes will STOP and there will be new probes into all things Trump.. and of course IMPEACHMENT proceedings occupying Congress's time.. and the Fake News. Sessions will have wasted 2 years, not getting off his ass and doing criminal investigations, and it will be harder to replace him and get that started Sessions is biding his time.....#StickWithThePlan is looking even stupider now. |
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| Author: | Rumpole [ Sat Sep 01, 2018 7:42 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: POLLS AND PREDICTIONS - Mid Terms 2018 |
Ah ha!!... I see a similar quirk in the Reuters poll reporting today as I did last week. The "Weekly" poll graph looks good... but clearly it does not yet include all data. In fact I am viewing "week ending 2nd Sept" when it is still only 1st Sept in usa. It looks good with the gap narrowing to D +2 but, clearly things might change when all the daily data is included. I will add.... if a poll is trying to measure a percentage difference that varies from 0 to 13 over the week, then either the number itself is erratic or the polling method is erratic. In either case the number is of limited value. FWIW D +2  http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/T ... apsed/true And again the updated version... looking at same dates...but data added 9/4/18.... D +8.9 (daily shows as D +9.4)  It sure looks like Reuters are MAKING SHIT UP!!... playing with timing they release data |
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| Author: | Rumpole [ Mon Sep 03, 2018 10:00 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: POLLS AND PREDICTIONS - Mid Terms 2018 |
For Comparison..... 2014 Generic Congressional Vote - Mid Terms  https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -2170.html Note RCP Average UNDER predicted Republican V Democrat vote by R +3.3% 2016 Generic Congressional Vote Remember... in 2016 polls 2 months out... a Blue win was predicted (small blue wave)   https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -5279.html The "blue wave" CRASHED in the last few days... broke offshore 
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